Epoch MCP Server

Epoch -- Time Estimation MCP Server

Epoch helps AI agents understand time.

AI can write code, analyze data, and build apps -- but it can't tell you how long something will take, what it'll cost, or whether a deadline is realistic. Epoch fixes that.

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Show Me

You: "How long will a 15,000 line project take with a small team?"

Claude (using Epoch):
  COCOMO II nominal: 100 person-months (traditional team)
  AI-adjusted: 9 person-months (LLM-assisted workflow)
  Schedule risk: medium (MAPE 15%, based on 28 historical features)
  Cost estimate (Claude Sonnet): ~$340 in API tokens

You: "How many working days between now and launch?"

Claude (using Epoch):
  Start: May 1, 2026
  End: July 15, 2026
  Business days: 54
  Weekend days: 16
  Holidays: 1 (Independence Day)
  Total calendar days: 75

You: "Which AI model should we use for a 50k-token job?"

Claude (using Epoch):
  gemini-2.0-flash:  $0.02 -- fast, budget-friendly
  gpt-4o-mini:       $0.02 -- fast, budget-friendly
  gemini-2.5-pro:    $0.37 -- standard, high quality
  claude-sonnet-4:    $0.57 -- standard, high quality
  Recommendation: gemini-2.0-flash for cost, claude-sonnet-4 for quality

Why Epoch?

Every AI agent hallucinates timelines. "This should take about 2 hours" becomes 2 days. Epoch gives AI grounded, data-driven estimates instead of guesses. It packages established estimation methods (PERT, COCOMO II, Monte Carlo, reference class forecasting) into 24 tools any AI can call -- so your assistant stops guessing and starts calculating.

Works out of the box. Epoch ships with a bundled reference database built from 126,223 real data points across task types, complexity levels, and estimation tools. You get accurate estimates from day one — no data collection or account setup required. If you choose to record your actuals, Epoch's self-improvement engine learns your patterns and gets even more precise over time.

What is MCP?

MCP (Model Context Protocol) is how AI assistants like Claude connect to external tools. Think of it like a plugin system -- you add Epoch with one command, and suddenly your AI assistant can estimate timelines, calculate business days, compare model costs, and predict whether your project will finish on time.

Quick Start

30-second setup -- works in Claude Code, Cursor, VS Code, and Windsurf:

claude mcp add epoch -- npx @kyanitelabs/epoch

That's it. Your AI assistant now has 24 time estimation tools.

Or add it to your project's .mcp.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "epoch": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["@kyanitelabs/epoch"]
    }
  }
}

What Can Epoch Do?

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Technical Reference

Everything below is for developers who want to understand the internals, use the CLI or REST API, or contribute to Epoch.

Architecture

Six-layer design with 24 tools for time estimation, scheduling, cost analysis, and feedback:

Tool Reference

Layer 1 -- Core Temporal

get_current_time -- Current wall-clock time in any IANA timezone

Input:  { timezone: "America/New_York" }
Output: {
  iso: "2026-05-01T08:30:00.000-04:00",
  humanReadable: "Fri, May 1, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT",
  timezone: "America/New_York",
  utcOffset: "-04:00"
}

convert_timezone -- Convert a timestamp between IANA timezones

Input:  { timestamp: "2026-05-01T12:00:00Z", target_tz: "Asia/Tokyo" }
Output: {
  iso: "2026-05-01T21:00:00.000+09:00",
  timezone: "Asia/Tokyo",
  utcOffset: "+09:00",
  humanReadable: "Fri, May 1, 2026, 9:00 PM JST"
}

parse_duration -- Parse human-readable duration strings

Input:  { duration_string: "2h30m" }
Output: {
  input: "2h30m",
  totalSeconds: 9000,
  humanReadable: "2 hours 30 minutes"
}

time_math -- Date arithmetic operations

Input:  { operation: "add_days", date: "2026-05-01", value: 7 }
Output: {
  result: "2026-05-08T00:00:00.000Z",
  operation: "add_days",
  input: "2026-05-01"
}

Supported operations: add_days, add_business_days, diff, convert_tz, parse_nl, format_duration

Layer 2 -- Calendar Math

add_business_days -- Add N business days with holiday awareness (US, UK, FR, DE, JP)

Input:  { start_date: "2026-05-01", days: 5, country: "US" }
Output: {
  startDate: "2026-05-01",
  endDate: "2026-05-08",
  businessDays: 5,
  countryCode: "US",
  humanReadable: "5 business days from 2026-05-01 to 2026-05-08 (US)."
}

count_business_days -- Count business days between two dates

Input:  { start_date: "2026-05-01", end_date: "2026-05-15", country: "US" }
Output: {
  startDate: "2026-05-01",
  endDate: "2026-05-15",
  businessDays: 10,
  countryCode: "US",
  humanReadable: "10 business days between 2026-05-01 and 2026-05-15 (US)."
}

Layer 3 -- Estimation

pert_estimate -- PERT three-point estimation with confidence intervals and urgency scoring

Input:  {
  optimistic: 2,
  most_likely: 4,
  pessimistic: 12,
  unit: "hours"
}
Output: {
  expected: 5,
  variance: 2.78,
  stdDeviation: 1.67,
  confidence95: [1.67, 8.33],
  confidence99: [0, 10],
  unit: "hours",
  urgencyCategory: "medium",
  humanReadable: "Expected: 5 hours. 95% confidence: 1.67 to 8.33 hours. 99% confidence: 0 to 10 hours.",
  developerProfile: { mode: "ai_native", correctionFactor: 1.45 },
  adjustedEstimate: 7.25
}

cocomo_estimate -- COCOMO II software sizing with LLM-adapted cost drivers

Input:  {
  kloc: 15,
  reasoning_complexity: 1.2,
  context_completeness: 1.0,
  transformation_impact: 0.8,
  iterative_cycles: 1.5,
  human_oversight: 1.2
}
Output: {
  kloc: 15,
  personMonthsNominal: 99.9,
  personMonthsLlmAdjusted: 8.9,
  effortMultipliers: {
    reasoning_complexity: 1.2,
    context_completeness: 1.0,
    transformation_impact: 0.8,
    iterative_cycles: 1.5,
    human_oversight: 1.2,
    product: 1.728
  },
  developerProfile: { mode: "ai_native", correctionFactor: 1.45 }
}

LLM-adapted cost drivers include reasoning complexity, context completeness, transformation impact, iterative cycles, and human oversight requirements.

sprint_forecast -- Sprint velocity forecasting from historical data

Input:  {
  backlog_points: 100,
  velocity_history: [20, 25, 22, 23],
  sprint_length_days: 14,
  hours_per_sprint: 80
}
Output: {
  backlogPoints: 100,
  averageVelocity: 22.5,
  requiredSprints: 4.4,
  pessimisticSprints: 4.9,
  hoursPerPoint: 3.56,
  totalHours: 355.6,
  completionDays: 62,
  sprintLengthDays: 14,
  developerProfile: { mode: "ai_native", sprintVelocityPoints: 80, correctionFactor: 1.45 }
}

critical_path -- Critical Path Method with merge-bias adjustment for parallel tasks

Input:  {
  tasks: [
    { name: "A", duration: 5, predecessors: [] },
    { name: "B", duration: 3, predecessors: ["A"] },
    { name: "C", duration: 4, predecessors: ["A"] }
  ]
}
Output: {
  critical_path: ["A", "C"],
  total_duration: 9,
  slack_per_task: { A: 0, B: 1, C: 0 },
  merge_bias_adjustment: 0
}

monte_carlo_schedule -- Monte Carlo simulation with seeded PRNG for deterministic, reproducible results

Input:  {
  tasks: [
    { name: "A", optimistic: 2, most_likely: 4, pessimistic: 8 },
    { name: "B", optimistic: 1, most_likely: 3, pessimistic: 6 }
  ],
  iterations: 10000
}
Output: {
  p10: "5.9",
  p50: "7.91",
  p80: "9.39",
  p95: "10.75",
  riskEvents: [{ description: "Task \"A\" exceeded 1.5x PERT expected in 5% of simulations", probability: 0.05, impactDays: 3 }],
  criticalPathProbability: 0.8
}

Layer 4 -- Analytics

reference_class_estimate -- Reference class forecasting with planning fallacy correction

Input:  {
  task_type: "feature",
  complexity: 3
}
Output: {
  rawEstimate: 6.7,
  correctedEstimate: 11.1,
  correctionFactor: 1.67,
  sampleSize: 126223,
  baselineSource: "self-improvement",
  confidence: "pessimistic",
  developerProfile: { mode: "ai_native", estimationMape: 15, underestimationBias: 0.2, correctionFactor: 1.45 },
  adjustedEstimate: 9.7,
  note: "Correction factors from bundled reference database (126,223 samples). Record actuals to personalize further."
}

Valid task_type values: feature, bugfix, refactor, migration, infrastructure, documentation, testing, design.

calibrate_estimates -- Team-specific accuracy calibration from historical estimated vs actual data

Input:  {
  task_type: "feature",
  team_id: "backend"
}
Output: {
  correctionFactor: 1.45,
  accuracyTrend: "stable",
  velocityTrend: "stable",
  recommendations: [
    "Using reference database correction factor (1.45x) — personalized from 126,223 samples.",
    "Record actuals via POST /v1/feedback/record-actual to refine for your team's patterns."
  ]
}

token_time_bridge -- Map LLM token budgets to wall-clock time for 12 model families

Input:  {
  tokens: 50000,
  model: "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
  tool_calls: 10,
  reasoning_depth: "deep"
}
Output: {
  estimatedSeconds: 697,
  estimatedMinutes: 11.6,
  confidence: "likely",
  urgency: "short",
  breakdown: {
    promptTokens: 15000,
    completionTokens: 35000,
    toolOverheadSeconds: 2
  }
}

Layer 5 -- Cost & Risk

token_cost_estimate -- Token cost estimation for LLM API calls

Input:  {
  tokens: 50000,
  model: "claude-sonnet-4-6"
}
Output: {
  tokens: 50000,
  model: "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  estimatedSeconds: 36,
  estimatedMinutes: 0.6,
  estimatedCost: 0.57,
  costBreakdown: { inputCost: 0.045, outputCost: 0.525, toolCallOverheadCost: 0 },
  confidence: "likely"
}

compare_models -- Side-by-side cost and capability comparison across LLM models

Input:  {
  tokens: 50000,
  sort_by: "cost"
}
Output: {
  tokens: 50000,
  models: [
    { model: "gemini-2.0-flash", estimatedCost: 0.0155, qualityTier: "fast", tokensPerSecond: 230 },
    { model: "deepseek-v3", estimatedCost: 0.0189, qualityTier: "fast", tokensPerSecond: 150 },
    { model: "claude-sonnet-4-6", estimatedCost: 0.57, qualityTier: "fast", tokensPerSecond: 140 }
  ],
  sortBy: "cost"
}

accuracy_trend -- Track estimation accuracy over time from recorded feedback data

Input:  { team_id: "backend", window_size: 50 }
Output: {
  overallTrend: "improving",
  currentMape: 26.5,
  industryBaselineMape: 25,
  totalEstimates: 1049,
  totalWithActuals: 1049,
  windows: [{ period: "Window 1 (estimates 1-50)", mape: 32, bias: 5.3, sampleSize: 50 }]
}

schedule_risk -- Schedule risk scoring for project timelines

Input:  {
  estimated_hours: 40,
  task_type: "feature"
}
Output: {
  estimatedHours: 40,
  riskLevel: "low",
  confidenceIntervals: { p50: 40, p80: 45.1, p95: 49.9 },
  historicalAccuracy: { mape: 15, sampleSize: 126223 },
  recommendation: "Low risk. Estimate is within normal variance.",
  humanReadable: "Schedule risk: low. MAPE: 15% (based on 0 historical records). Confidence intervals: p50=40h, p80=45.1h, p95=49.9h."
}

cocomo_validate -- Validate COCOMO II estimates against reference data

Input:  {}
Output: {
  projectsEvaluated: 182,
  mape: 85.55,
  bias: 53.5,
  byProjectType: {
    organic: { mape: 86.57, count: 22 },
    semidetached: { mape: 84.75, count: 106 },
    embedded: { mape: 86.71, count: 54 }
  },
  recommendedAdjustments: []
}

ai_native Mode

Epoch tools support dual estimation modes to account for the fundamentally different velocity of AI-assisted vs human-only development.

When ai_native=true (default), tools use Epoch's reference database with tool-aware correction factors. These baselines reflect AI agent workflows: faster iteration, higher output volume, and different error profiles.

When ai_native=false, tools apply human developer baselines:

Tools that support ai_native: pert_estimate, cocomo_estimate, sprint_forecast, reference_class_estimate, schedule_risk.

Hybrid workflows: ai_native accepts a float from 0.0 (fully human) to 1.0 (fully AI-native). Values like 0.5 produce interpolated profiles for mixed AI/human workflows. Boolean values (true/false) remain supported for backward compatibility.

Self-Improvement Engine

Epoch learns your patterns the more you use it. The bundled reference database already contains 126,223 data points with correction factors tuned from real estimate-vs-actual pairs across 8 task types — it works accurately on day one.

If you record your actuals, Epoch personalizes further:

1. Estimate -- Generate an initial estimate with any estimation tool
2. Record -- Track the actual outcome (record_actual)
3. Learn -- Self-improvement computes personalized correction factors from your data
4. Improve -- Future estimates apply your team's actual patterns
5. Trend -- accuracy_trend tracks whether your accuracy is improving over time

Your estimates + your actuals -> Your correction factors -> Better estimates -> Repeat

The engine detects systematic biases (chronic under-estimation, accuracy degradation) and surfaces actionable recommendations.

You do not need to share data with anyone for this to work. Self-improvement runs entirely locally using your own ~/.epoch/ data.

Data Pipeline

Epoch uses a three-layer data strategy so it's accurate from the start and gets better over time:

1. Bundled reference database (works immediately, no setup): Epoch ships with a pre-built reference database containing 126,223 data points across 8 task types and 5 complexity levels. Correction factors are computed from real estimate-vs-actual pairs. You get accurate estimates the moment you install it.

2. Local self-improvement (automatic, private): As you use Epoch and record actuals, the self-improvement engine recalibrates correction factors from your data. This runs entirely locally in ~/.epoch/ — nothing leaves your machine. The engine triggers automatically every 100 tool calls or 24 hours.

• Auto-recording: Use scripts/auto-record-actual.mjs to automatically record actual time against pending estimates.
• Source tagging: Set EPOCH_SOURCE=<project-name> to tag estimates by project.
• Inspect your data: epoch data where and epoch data status show what's stored locally.

3. Community contributions (optional, opt-in): You can optionally share anonymized data to help improve baselines for all users. Community data is stripped of all identifying information — only task type, complexity, estimated hours, actual hours, and date remain. See CONTRIBUTING-data.md for format and privacy requirements.

epoch share-data --validate --description "My anonymized estimation data"

This is completely optional. Epoch works great without it.

Surfaces

Epoch exposes the same 24 tools through three interfaces:

Default behavior: running epoch with no arguments starts the MCP stdio server.

CLI

# PERT estimate
epoch pert-estimate --optimistic 2 --most-likely 4 --pessimistic 12 --unit hours

# Token-to-time bridge
epoch token-time-bridge --tokens 50000 --model claude-sonnet-4-20250514

# Monte Carlo simulation
epoch monte-carlo-schedule --tasks '[{"name":"A","optimistic":2,"most_likely":4,"pessimistic":8}]'

# COCOMO II estimate
epoch cocomo-estimate --kloc 15 --project-type organic

# Schedule risk score
epoch schedule-risk --tasks '[{"name":"A","duration":5,"risk_level":"high"},{"name":"B","duration":3,"risk_level":"low"}]'

# List all tools
epoch list-tools

# Pretty table output
epoch pert-estimate --optimistic 2 --most-likely 4 --pessimistic 12 --pretty

REST API

# Start the server
epoch serve --port 3099
# or: EPOCH_TRANSPORT=http EPOCH_PORT=3099 epoch

# Call any tool
curl -X POST http://localhost:3099/v1/tools/pert_estimate \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"optimistic": 2, "most_likely": 4, "pessimistic": 12, "unit": "hours"}'

# Health check
curl http://localhost:3099/health

# OpenAPI spec
curl http://localhost:3099/openapi.json

For AI Agents

Epoch provides built-in discoverability endpoints so AI agents can find and use the API without prior configuration:

Installation

git clone https://github.com/KyaniteLabs/Epoch.git
cd Epoch
pnpm install
pnpm run build

Development

pnpm test          # Run test suite (896 tests)
pnpm run build     # Build with tsup
pnpm run typecheck # TypeScript strict mode check
pnpm run dev       # Run development server
pnpm run inspector # Open MCP Inspector for interactive testing

Tech Stack

• Runtime: Node.js 20+ (ESM)
• Language: TypeScript 5.8 (strict mode, noUncheckedIndexedAccess, verbatimModuleSyntax)
• Validation: Zod 3.24 with .describe() on every field
• MCP SDK: @modelcontextprotocol/sdk 1.12+
• HTTP: Hono (lightweight, multi-runtime)
• CLI: Commander.js
• Date Handling: date-fns 4.x + date-fns-tz 3.x
• Build: tsup (ESM output)
• Testing: vitest 3.x with v8 coverage (97% statements, 88% branches)

Configuration

Telemetry & Privacy

Epoch can share anonymized estimate/actual pairs to improve accuracy for all users. This is off by default and requires explicit opt-in.

epoch telemetry enable     # Opt in (shows exactly what will be shared)
epoch telemetry preview    # Preview anonymized data before enabling
epoch telemetry status     # Show current settings
epoch telemetry set-endpoint --endpoint https://your-server.example.com/v1/telemetry
epoch telemetry submit     # Submit queued anonymized records to the configured endpoint
epoch telemetry disable    # Opt out
epoch telemetry export     # Export all local data as anonymized JSON

What is shared: task type, complexity, tool name, estimated hours, actual hours, ratio, date (YYYY-MM-DD only).

What is NEVER shared: project names, notes, team IDs, IP addresses, timestamps with time-of-day, source code, descriptions.

See Privacy Policy and Telemetry Documentation for full details.

Where Your Data Lives

By default, Epoch stores local data under ~/.epoch/ or EPOCH_DATA_DIR. Your local usage data is not automatically committed to GitHub and is not automatically submitted anywhere.

epoch data where     # Show local data file locations
epoch data status    # Show data file counts, feedback health, telemetry config

Sharing Data

Use epoch share-data --validate to create a community-data JSON file suitable for data/community/. Review the file before opening a PR.

epoch share-data --description "Anonymized Epoch usage export" --validate

Machine Labels

windows-receiver is a historical label. The current receiver host is ubuntu-receiver at 100.113.174.74. See docs/ops/machines.md for the full inventory.

License

MIT License. See LICENSE for full terms.